As General Managers wake up from their turkey comas they are reminded that unlike last year, we have baseball scheduled for next year! For the first time since 2019, owners, GM’s, agents, and players will fly to San Diego in person to discuss potential contracts.
The Philadelphia Phillies have not been a stranger to spending the last few years. Since the 2017-2018 offseason the Phillies have handed out a multitude of big contracts from Carlos Santana to Bryce Harper to this past offseason when they landed Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to start their quest for a National League Pennant. It does not appear that they will be stopping now so here is a list of potential moves at shortstop and Starting Pitching to watch for the Phillies in the coming days at San Diego.
Trea Turner: This may be the worst kept secret in baseball right now that the Phillies are looking to acquire the services of this 29 year old generational talent. When the Phillies opted out of the final year of Jean Segura’s contract it looked very certain that a major upgrade could be coming. Turner has a career slash line of .302/.355/.487. He has great range at Shortstop and his speed rivals that of the best in baseball. With the new rules in place for the next year and the current state of the Phillies lineup, he may be the best fit for this Philadelphia Phillies team that has been missing that five-tool difference maker to hit in front of Bryce Harper. My prediction is that he will be a Philadelphia Phillie when the dust settles, and that may happen before the meetings are over. Contract: 8 years/ 264 million
Carlos Correa: This is a very similar situation to Trea Turner. He’s not the first shortstop on this list and he definitely won’t be the last on it either as he is yet another generational shortstop waiting to be offered a nine figure salary for the next many years. This is the second offseason in a row that Correa has been a part of a stacked shortstop market but this time he is hoping to get a better deal than the lockout shortened one he signed last year with the Minnesota Twins. Correa is a controversial figure. He was a core member of the Astros team in 2017 who got caught stealing signs in a season that eventually won them the now tainted World Championship. Despite that he has continued to produce at an elite level. He is arguably a top 2 defender in this shortstop class (more on that later) and is an incredible hitter. In 2022 he slashed .291/.366/.467. His glove will be extremely valuable without the shift in place. He is also the youngest of the 4 major shortstops. Contract: 10 years/ 300 million
Xander Bogaerts: Xander Bogaerts market has turned out to be quite interesting. The Boston Red Sox seem to currently be going through an identity crisis and getting into ugly territories. They signed Trevor Story last offseason to pair with Bogaerts and are now on the cusp of losing half of that double play combo. Bogaerts is arguably the best bat of the 4 shortstops but his defense seems to be suspect despite showing some improvements this past season. This season be slashed .307/.377/.466 on the underachieving Boston Red Sox team. He had a career high 5 OAA (Outs Above Average) according to FanGraphs and 4 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) according to Baseball Reference. In the end teams will be looking for elite defensive shortstops with the banning of the shift and this one season may not be enough for some to pay Bogaerts as much as the others. Contract: 8 years/ 216 million
Dansby Swanson: Rounding out the big four shortstops is gold glove winner Dansby Swanson. Drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first round of the 2015 draft could he find his way back to Phoenix? The Georgia native is almost certain to look into staying in Atlanta but it is not clear if the Braves will meet his price point. His fiance Mallory Pugh is a star soccer player for the Chicago Red Stars making the possibility of the athletic couple to be stars on professional teams in the same city. Jon Heyman has the Chicago Cubs as the favorite to sign the All Star shortstop. He slashed one of his best career lines of .277/.329/.447. His career offensive numbers don’t jump off the page in this stacked free agent class but it is more than serviceable. A team may go to him as a cheaper alternative to the other 3. While a team might risk his offense regressing, his glove makes up for it. Contract: 7 years/ 164 million
Jameson Taillon: The Phillies are reportedly in on Taillon. While the big fish like Jacob DeGrom and Carlos Rodon are out there, it should be safe to assume that the Phillies will probably look to acquire a pitcher without a Qualifying offer attached. Taillon is a decent #4 option with a respectable 7.7 k/9 rate which will be important with no shift. He has quite literally been a league average pitcher over the last 2 seasons with a 100 ERA+. He seems to be impressing front offices in his meetings as it now looks like he will potentially surpass the 4 year 56 million dollar contract from Jon Gray last season. The Phillies should probably be skeptical in handing out a contract like that. Contract: 3 years/ 50 million
Taijuan Walker: Another pitcher who did not receive the qualifying offer this offseason. He is another guy who would be a little risky to hand out a long term but the upside is there. While health concerns are a factor, Walker has put together 59 starts in the last 2 seasons and would be a decent innings eater for the Phillies. His baseball savant page is about as blue as the Blue Jays uniform he’ll probably randomly be wearing next season. Contract: 3 years/ 45 million
Jose Quintana: This is a one year type ordeal. Along with pitchers like Johnny Cueto and Corey Kluber he is not getting any younger, but with the “baby aces” in Andrew Painter, Griff McGary, and Mick Abel on the way the Phillies may only need a one year pact for a guy like this. Quintana had a solid 2022 campaign with the Pirates and later the Cardinals even blanking the red hot Phillies offense in a wild card game before the improbable 9th inning comeback. Any 3 of those pitchers would not be earth shattering but they would be innings eaters for a team that needs to replace a lot of innings. Contract: 1 year/ 10 million
Johnny Cueto: As stated above the Phillies may be inclined to explore a one year option. While that wouldn’t take away any opportunity to land another pitcher it could add some depth to a pitching staff that needs it. Cueto is a former ace who has had playing time with the Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, San Francisco Giants, and most recently the Chicago White Sox. He is a player who has experienced playoff baseball for multiple organizations and could help mentor a young staff which features two top 100 pitching prospects in the near future. This move would be a low risk high reward type move. Contract: 1 year/ 7 million
Corey Kluber: Kluber is a former CY Young winner with the Cleveland Guardians. He has pitched in multiple big playoff series including the 2016 World Series in which Cleveland lost to the World Champion Cubs. If the Phillies were to take a gamble on him they should not expect vintage Kluber, but much like Cueto he is a guy who will eat innings and possibly mentor the young pitchers in the Phillies staff. Contract: 1 year/ 9 million
