The Philadelphia Phillies are back in the postseason for the second consecutive season. The Phillies have secured back-to-back playoff appearances since the 2010 and 2011 seasons. They will be facing the Miami Marlins in the NL Wild Card series, with all three games (if necessary) being played at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are geared up and ready to go on a deep playoff run again.
The Phillies will be starting Zack Wheeler in Game 1 and Aaron Nola in Game 2. On the other side the Marlins will have Jesus Luzardo for Game 1, and Braxton Garrett for Game 2. The Marlins shocked the baseball world this season by making the playoffs in a full 162 game season for the first time since 2003 when they won their second World Series title in franchise history.
They have a very solid group of players, and have relied heavily on their pitching staff to get them to this point. However, they will be without their ace and 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett have put up very productive seasons in their own right. Luzardo finished the season with a 3.63 ERA in 32 starts. He threw 178.2 innings and reached the 200 strikeout mark with 208 to go with his 124 ERA+ and has arguably been the best starter this season for the Marlins. Garrett has also been a reliable starter for the Marlins with a 3.66 ERA in 31 games (30 starts). He had a 122 ERA+ across 159.2 innings with 156 strikeouts.
Even without Alcantara the Phillies offense will have their work cut out for them. While the Marlins starting staff has been one of the better units in the NL, their bullpen has more question marks. Their closing tandem of AJ Puk and Tanner Scott have been solid, converting 27 saves in 40 opportunities. Scott has easily been the best reliever on the team with a 2.31 ERA across 74 games and an ERA+ of 195. He has also struck out 104 batters in just 78 innings. David Robertson was acquired at the deadline from the New York Mets and was supposed to be their lockdown closer down the stretch but converted just 4 saves on 7 opportunities and had a 5.06 ERA in 22 games with the Marlins. Andrew Nardi, Huoscar Brazoban, Steven Okert, George Soriano, and JT Chargois are more solid arms out of the Marlins bullpen that have been productive for the team. Overall, they have a very solid pitching staff that could go toe to toe with this Phillies staff.
The offense is where these teams differ the most. The Phillies were one of the best offenses in baseball this year, with almost every regular in the lineup accumulating an OPS+ above 100. The Marlins on the other hand, had just 5 (excluding trade deadline acquisitions Jake Burger and Josh Bell which we will get to later). This Marlins offense is led by NL Batting Champion Luis Arraez and slugger Jorge Soler.
Arraez is the by far best contact hitter in baseball. He posted an absurd .354 average and a slash line of .354/.393/.469 with an OPS of .861 and an OPS+ of 133. He also walked more than he struck out with 35 walks and just 34 strikeouts. He is much more than just a singles hitter, as he had 30 doubles and 10 homers on the season. Jorge Soler is basically the polar opposite of Arraez. In his first year with the Marlins in 2022, injuries limited him to just 72 games but he played a full season this year appearing in 137 games and he was everything the Marlins could have asked for. He slugged 36 home runs, leading the team by a considerable margin with the next closest Marlin having 19, a slash line of .250/.341/.512 and an .853 OPS good for a 128 OPS+. Soler has dangerous power and can change any game with one swing of the bat, as we saw back in the 2021 World Series when he was a member of the Braves where he took home World Series MVP.
After these two, the lineup takes a slight dip. Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Sanchez were productive hitters posting a 104 OPS+ and 108 OPS+, respectively. However two of the top hitters on the Marlins coming into the playoffs were trade deadline acquisitions. Since being traded to Miami, Jake Burger and Josh Bell have been tearing it up at the plate.
Jake Burger is slashing .303/.355/.505 for an OPS .860 with a 130 OPS+. Bell, on the other hand, is slashing .270/.338/.480 with an OPS of .818 and an OPS+ of 119. These two were easily some of the best acquisitions at the trade deadline. Kim Ng and the Marlins front office absolutely nailed it and it has helped their offense immensely. Albeit, while Burger, Bell, Arraez and Soler have all been fantastic for the Marlins, the offense is still the weakest part of the team.
The Phillies are obviously favored heading into this series. Simply put, they have a better roster and are overall just the better team. On top of that, they get to play all 3 games at home in one of the best atmospheres postseason baseball has to offer. However, this doesn’t mean they can just look past the Marlins to the NLDS and a date with the Atlanta Braves.
In recent years, the Marlins have always been a thorn in the Phillies’ side. Even in the 2023 season, the Phillies went just 6-7 against the Marlins. While regular season record ultimately means nothing come playoff time, the Phillies last year went 5-8 against the Braves in regular season play but bounced them in 4 games in the NLDS, there is something to say about the Marlins always seeming to be a tough out for the Phillies.
If the Phillies are for real, and want to go on another deep playoff run, they must take care of business against the Marlins. Red October is back in full swing, and it all starts on Tuesday.
