It has been just over three months since the Philadelphia Phillies put together one of the worst collapses in the history of Philadelphia sports when they lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 7 of the NLCS.
Following the bone-crushing defeat it was clear the Phillies had a very important offseason coming up. The biggest story being the looming free agency of Aaron Nola. The Phillies put any concerns of Nola leaving for teams like the Cardinals or even the division rival Atlanta Braves by giving him a 7 year $172 million contract with no opt-outs and a full no-trade clause. Other than that, the Phillies have stayed very quiet throughout the offseason.
It may be hard to believe, but we are just a about a week away from pitchers and catchers reporting for Spring Training. This offseason, at times, has dragged along with minimal big splashes being made. Obviously, Juan Soto being traded to the Yankees, the Dodgers signing Ohtani to a record-breaking 10 year $700 million contract with unprecedented deferrals along with signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the largest contract for a pitcher in MLB history without even throwing a pitch in the majors were massive moves, but other than that the offseason has been mostly uneventful and unsurprising.
At this point in the offseason it feels like a good time to sit down and check in on what moves the Phillies have already made and moves that they should look to make before the 2024 season kicks off.
As it was mentioned before the Phillies’ big move of the offseason up to this point was bringing back Aaron Nola for 7 years, all but ensuring he will spend the entirety of his career in a Phillies uniform. As currently constructed, the Phillies are essentially just looking to run it back with the same squad that just won 90 games and secured another NLCS appearance.
While the Phillies did retain Aaron Nola, they stand to lose a few pieces from the 2023 squad. Closer Craig Kimbrel left for the Baltimore Orioles on a 1 year deal, Rhys Hoskins signed a 2 year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers, and Michael Lorenzen is still currently a free agent with no indication he will be returning to the Phillies. Truth be told, there isn’t a pressing need for the Phillies to be big spenders this offseason as the team they currently have is more than capable of winning a title as constructed. They have one of the best lineups in the league, one of the best 1-2 punches in their rotation along with solid depth in their rotation, and a very good bullpen. However, that doesn’t mean the roster is perfect and there aren’t any free agents out there that would help the Phillies in a big way.
The one question about the team right now that doesn’t seem to have an answer, is who is going to close games in 2024. In 2023, Craig Kimbrel acted as the closer for the majority of the season, converting 23 of 28 save opportunities, with Alvarado converting 10 of 12 save opportunities. The simple solution would be just to slot Alvarado in the closer role, but early indications seem as though the Phillies would like to keep their options open and are okay with utilizing a “closer by committee” approach. While this isn’t a bad idea, the point of having someone like Kimbrel last year is you had your one guy to turn to every time you were in a close game in the 9th. Having one guy you know you can trust and lean on in those situations opens up a bunch of opportunities and ways to utilize the team’s bullpen depth. Having someone like Alvarado, particularly in the postseason, that can be utilized in the highest leverage spots no matter the inning is super valuable knowing you have someone that can shut down your opposition when the 9th inning rolls around. While Kimbrel was very good for the Phillies, he is no longer someone that is put in the upper echelon of closers throughout Major League Baseball. His failure in games 3 and 4 of the NLCS proved that.
The ideal solution in the free agent market to this problem for the Phillies would have been Josh Hader. Hader recently just signed a 5 year, $95 million dollar contract with the Houston Astros. At the start of the offseason the Phillies and the Rangers were rumored to be the top suitors for Josh Hader. Both teams just made deep playoff runs, with the Rangers having just won the World Series. Both teams were in need of a closer and there was no one better than Josh Hader on the market who has simply just been one of the absolute best closers in the sport since he came up to the majors in 2017. This was the last time there was any link between the Phillies and Hader as it seemed clear to the rest of the baseball world the Phillies had no interest in signing him.
Even though the Phillies still have a great roster that is capable of winning a championship as currently constructed, this was a huge miss for Dombrowski and the Phillies. Dombrowski has done so much for the Phillies since taking over baseball operations after the 2020 season and this isn’t something that should cause fans to lose trust in him. However, Hader would have been a perfect fit for the Phillies and electing not to pursue him at all is certainly something that may raise some eyebrows. Hader would have provided a true shutdown closer for the 9th inning, which would allow the Phillies to have more flexibility in their bullpen. It would allow them to be able to use guys like Alvarado, Hoffman, Kerkering in the biggest spots in the game, regardless of the inning, and maintain confidence that they have a guy there to finish the game and shut the door. There wouldn’t be concern about using your best guys too early in a game and having to throw something together to close the game out and just hope that it works. Someone like Hader provides stability at the back end of your bullpen, something that using the closer by committee approach does not.
Bringing in Josh Hader would have been very similar to when the Phillies traded for Brad Lidge prior to the 2008 season. The 2007 Phillies had a prolific lineup and a good group of starters. They won the NL East returning to the postseason for the first time since 1993, but were ultimately swept by the Colorado Rockies in the NLDS. The Phillies had a group that was more than ready to win and were capable of winning it all. In 2008 Brad Lidge famously went a perfect 48/48 in save opportunities throughout the regular season and postseason. Lidge helped improve the bullpen by being a lockdown guy in the 9th and giving the team more flexibility and versatility in their bullpen helping everyone improve. This was the Phillies’ missing piece they needed, and they proceeded to win the 2008 World Series.
Comparing adding Josh Hader to this Phillies team to the Phillies adding Brad Lidge in 2008 is not to say that if the Phillies added Hader it would mean they’re guaranteed to win a World Series. The point was to simply say this Phillies team is in a very similar position to the 2007 team, and adding a legitimate superstar at the closer position would have boosted the Phillies’ chance of winning a title.
Since Hader is off the board that begs the question, what next? The Phillies still could use an extra arm or two in the bullpen, particularly a right handed reliever. There have recently been trade rumors swirling around two of the top closers in the game, both right-handers, Devin Williams and Emmanuel Clase. Either one of these guys would be a massive addition for this Phillies squad. However, the price tag to trade for them is likely to be very high and if the Phillies were unwilling to pay Hader, it seems unlikely they’d want to move top prospects for a closer. They seem very comfortable with the “closer by committee” approach. In the free agent market there are a handful of right-handed relievers out there that would be good additions to this Phillies’ pen.
*Michael Fulmer has been signed by the Red Sox organization. He was a free agent at the time of writing*
Michael Fulmer is a very intriguing arm the Phillies should look at in the free agent market. The 2016 AL Rookie of the Year threw 57 innings with a 4.42 ERA in the Cubs’ bullpen last season. On the surface, his numbers look pretty pedestrian, but the underlying factors make him a very interesting arm. According to Baseball Savant he was above the 90th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, Whiff %, and Hard Hit %. He was above the 75th percentile in K %, Barrel %, and Extension. His Breaking Run Value was in the 84th percentile. His Fastball Spin also ranked in the 85th percentile. He only graded out poorly in BB % (11th percentile) and GB% (32nd percentile). Based on his peripheral statistics Fulmer seems like he could produce a lot more than he did in 2023 and be a low-risk signing for the Phillies. Fulmer is easily one of the most interested right-handers left on the free agent market. Some other options the Phillies could look into would be Ryne Stanek, Dominic Leone, and Jesse Chavez all of whom had productive 2024 seasons.
The last bit of information we’ve gotten this offseason about the Phillies so far is they are rumored to be “sleepers” for starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery and OF/1B Cody Bellinger. Bellinger does not make a lot of sense for the Phillies, their outfield and DH positions seem to be set and they are moving forward with Harper at first base. Also Cody Bellinger has been very inconsistent since his MVP season in 2019 and his peripheral numbers on his 2023 season point to him likely not repeating his production last season.
However, Jordan Montgomery would be a great addition for the Phillies. While starting pitching, outside of re-signing Aaron Nola, was not a priority for the Phillies this offseason with Montgomery remaining unsigned at this point in the offseason there is no reason for the Phillies not to pursue him. Adding Montgomery would give the Phillies arguably the best rotation in the league. With Nola and Wheeler taking the top two spots, Montgomery would likely slide in the third spot bumping Ranger to the 4 and Walker as the fifth starter. Montgomery had a career year last season starting 32 games between the Cardinals and Rangers with a 3.20 ERA across 188.2 innings good for a 138 ERA+. According to Baseball Savant his fastball was one of the best in the league ranking in the 93rd Percentile in Fastball Run Value. Montgomery not only had a great regular season but a stellar postseason for the World Series Champion Texas Rangers. Across 31 postseason innings he had a 3-1 record and a 2.90 ERA. Montgomery would be a great piece in the Phillies rotation with significant postseason experience under his belt with 37.2 innings across 3 different postseason runs.
Overall it has been a pretty uneventful offseason for the Phillies as Spring Training is right around the corner. Despite this, the Phillies are still in prime position to make the postseason and achieve the ultimate goal of bringing the Commissioner’s Trophy back to Broad Street. A brand new baseball season is right around the corner.
