Zack Wheeler is an ace, no doubt about it. Whatever questions anyone had about his ability to stay healthy and lead a rotation have been put to bed. When the Phillies signed Wheeler to a 5 year $118 million contract prior to the 2020 MLB season they had a vision that he could be an anchor in their rotation alongside Aaron Nola and form one of the best 1-2 punches in Major League Baseball. Zack Wheeler has been everything the Phillies have wanted and more.
This year, his fourth year in a Phillies uniform, will be the first time he finishes with an ERA above 3. He was runner-up for the Cy Young Award (which he arguably should’ve won) in 2021 and was dominant in the Phillies 2022 run to the World Series. Wheeler has been incredible in his Phillies tenure and is in the midst of a season where he is a legitimate dark horse in a wide open NL Cy Young race.
Phillies fans first got to see what Wheeler could do in the shortened 2020 season. In 11 starts and 71 innings he had a 2.72 ERA good for a 154 ERA+. He got some down-ballot Cy Young votes and was fantastic alongside Aaron Nola who had a great season of his own. Wheeler only had 54 strikeouts in his 71 innings of work for a 6.7 K/9 well below his career average of 8.7 in his time with the Mets. His Whiff % and K% were in the lower quarter of the league according to Baseball Savant’s percentile data, however he was well above average in almost all other peripherals. 2020 was just the beginning for Wheeler with the Phillies but it was a good sample of things to come.
In 2021, Wheeler had the best season of his career. He elevated his game beyond what many believed he was capable of. According to Baseball Savant, he increased his slider usage almost 10 percent along with a gain of 2 MPH in average velocity jumping from 90 to 92 MPH. His average velocity of his curveball increased from 80 to 82 MPH and his average changeup velocity increased from 90 to 91 MPH. His Put Away % with his slider rose around 8% joining his curveball as his two main strikeout pitches. Wheeler started 32 games for the Phillies and led the majors in innings pitched (213.1), complete games (3), and shutouts (2).
He led the National League in strikeouts with 247. He had an ERA of 2.78 and an ERA+ of 150. He had a 2.59 FIP and a 1.008 WHIP. His K/9 rose from a career low of 6.7 in 2020 to a career high of 10.4. Wheeler was nothing short of dominant and looked like a surefire Cy Young winner. Wheeler’s main competition was Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers who was coming off a fantastic season in his own right. Burnes led the majors in ERA, FIP and K/9 with a 2.43, 1.63, and 12.6 respectively. However, where Burnes lacked was volume. He made 28 starts to Wheeler’s 32 and threw just 167 innings compared to Wheeler’s 213.1. Burnes didn’t go deep in nearly as many games as Wheeler, but on a rate basis he was much better. Wheeler had a major league leading bWAR of 7.5 to Burnes’ 5.3.
However, on FanGraphs Burnes led with 7.5 fWAR with Wheeler right behind him at 7.2. The discrepancy in Burnes’ WAR on Baseball Reference and FanGraphs is due to FanGraphs main method for calculating WAR for pitchers being FIP while Baseball Reference leans more on runs allowed, earned runs, and innings pitched. In the end, Burnes took home the hardware despite both pitchers tallying 12 first place votes. Both had great cases for the award, but looking back Wheeler’s volume was unmatched. At the end of the day, innings are outs and Wheeler recorded 46.1 more innings accumulating 139 more outs than Burnes. Despite being the runner-up, Wheeler had a fantastic season and it deserves recognition.
In 2022, Wheeler was limited to just 26 starts and 153 innings pitched due to some minor injuries throughout the year, however he turned in another fantastic season for the Phillies. He had a 2.82 ERA and a 142 ERA+ throughout the season and formed the best 1-2 punch in baseball alongside Aaron Nola. The Phillies had gotten what they’d hoped out of these two guys and rode them and a fantastic offense to the playoffs for the first since 2011.
Everyone knows what happened after that with the Phillies going on a magical run to the World Series where they ultimately lost to the Houston Astros. In the postseason, Wheeler was the ace the Phillies needed. Wheeler started six games for the Phillies in the postseason throwing 35.2 innings with a 2.78 ERA. He only had one “bad” start for them, that came in game in Game 2 of the World Series where he tossed 5 innings and gave up 4 earned runs. Four of the six starts Wheeler made in the postseason were quality starts (6+ innings pitched and 3 earned runs or less) and was 2 outs away from making it five in Game 6 of the World Series when he was pulled for Jose Alvarado who would give up the 3-run homer to Yordan Alvarez that all but sealed the series.
That brings us to 2023. While some of the surface stats for Wheeler aren’t as eye-popping as they’ve been over the last couple of seasons, Wheeler has still been the best pitcher for a Phillies team that has been struggling to find consistent starting pitching. Aaron Nola is having the worst season of his career and has surrendered 31 home runs up to this point.
Taijun Walker has been a good innings eater for the Phillies but is in the midst of a brutal second half. Ranger Suarez has been good again when healthy, but has been limited to just 20 starts so far. Cristopher Sanchez came out of nowhere to shore up the fifth starter spot, but his long-term sustainability is questionable. Trade deadline acquisition Michael Lorenzen hasn’t been the same since his 124 pitch no-hitter and has since been relegated to the bullpen. Many of these struggles have been masked by the dominance of the Phillies bullpen and their otherworldly offense. Then there’s Wheeler. Wheeler has turned in quality start after quality start for the Phillies, especially down the stretch.
Wheeler currently has a 3.63 ERA (10th in the NL) in 30 starts. He has compiled 181 innings pitched (7th in the NL) with 201 strikeouts (5th in the NL) and an ERA+ of 119. He has a FIP of 3.22 (3rd in the NL) and a WHIP of 1.066 (3rd in the NL). He has also accumulated 4.2 bWAR (4th in NL) and 5.4 fWAR (Leads MLB). ERA+ is the only major statistic for a pitcher that Wheeler does not rank in the top 10 in the National League. The National League Cy Young Race is wide open with many great candidates for the award. Wheeler is definitely a long shot, but the fact that he is in the conversation at all after his up and down first half speaks volumes to how well he has pitched for the Phillies down the stretch. He won’t take home the award, but his 2023 season is absolutely worth noting and deserves more attention.
2024 is the last year of Wheeler’s five year deal he signed after the 2019 season. Next year will be his age 34 season, and while he has still been the ace of this Phillies staff there are some things to keep in mind for the future. In 2023, Wheeler’s average fastball velocity has dropped almost 2 MPH down to 95.2 from the 97.2 clip he was at in 2021. No player can outrun time, and it wouldn’t shock me if in the future his velocity could continue to drop. This doesn’t mean he would be incapable of being effective as there are plenty of pitchers that succeed with lower end velocity on their fastball. His fastball velocity still ranks in the 77th percentile among Major League pitchers according to Baseball Savant.
Will Zack Wheeler be a Phillie into 2025 and beyond? Only time will tell. However, if 2024 is the last season for Wheeler in the red pinstripes, his tenure was nothing short of remarkable and he deserves all the credit in the world for helping lead this team back to the playoffs for the first time in 11 years.
