*Disclaimer: Please note that Lucas Giolito was traded after the completion of this article.*
Since the start of June, the Philadelphia Phillies have a record of 30-16 to put them at 55-47 overall, and have thrust themselves right back into playoff contention in a way very reminiscent of last season. This has put them firmly in the “buyer” category for the upcoming MLB trade deadline.
Many rumors have been swirling around the Phillies as reports have come out that they are interested in big names such as Paul Goldschmidt and Juan Soto. These rumors pose the million dollar question that is, who are they going to target and who can they realistically land in a deadline deal? Let’s dive in.
The Phillies have had a couple glaring holes on the roster throughout the season at first base and at the fifth starter positions. Due to season-ending injuries to Rhys Hoskins and Andrew Painter, these positions have been filled by an array of different players the Phillies have tried to make work, yielding minimal success.
Bryce Harper has just recently made his first couple starts at first base and has looked much better than I think many fans and even coaches expected. It’s too small of a sample size to know if it is sustainable throughout the rest of the season but the early indications look good. However, when looking at the performance of the rest of the team, getting another reliable starter should be the top priority for the Phillies.
Nola and Wheeler have had their fair share of struggles and inconsistency, leaving the Phillies without a dominant ace for the entirety of the season up to this point. Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker have performed well in their respective roles as the middle of the rotation starters. However, after these four you take a look at the fifth starter spot which has been disastrous for the Phillies. Bailey Falter struggled mightily early on, so much that he was sent down and those struggles continued into AAA. Matt Strahm was a good spot starter in the beginning of the season, but he has not been the long-term solution and has been relegated to a long reliever role out of the bullpen. Christopher Sanchez has been a good story coming out of the 5th spot in the rotation pitching to the tune of a 2.98 ERA in 8 starts this season. While his surface stats look good, the deeper you look into his peripheral numbers, it begs the question of how sustainable his success is.
According to Baseball Savant he is at or below the 30th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, Hard Hit %, Barrel %, xBA (Expected Batting Average) and xSLG (Expected Slugging). These metrics are troubling as they point towards possible regression to the mean and that he may not be able to keep up this success long-term.
Each deadline, there is always a plethora of starters available on the market and it is one of the most sought after positions for contenders. The top names out there right now include Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman, and Eduardo Rodriguez. Eduardo Rodriguez is the most enticing pitcher of the three. Not only does he have the best stats of the three, he has the best peripherals.
In 15 starts, he has a 2.95 ERA with a 146 ERA+ and a 1.030 WHIP. When you dive into his peripherals and advanced metrics they also look fantastic. FIP is an ERA estimator that only accounts for walks, strikeouts, hit-by-pitches, and homeruns removing instances where fielders are involved. It does this to account for a pitcher’s ERA in just the situations they have control over. Eduardo Rodriguez sports a 3.18 FIP and is well above average in all metrics and percentiles on Baseball Savant excluding, Fastball Velocity and Spin, Extension and Whiff %. On top of all of this, he has 3 more seasons of control thanks to the 5 year $77 million contract he signed back before the 2022 MLB season.
While Giolito and Stroman would both be great rental pieces for a playoff push, (Giolito and Stroman are both on expiring contracts and Stroman has a player option for 2024), Rodriguez is a better fit for the Phillies as the team control should be prioritized due to Nola’s looming free agency and Wheeler also being a free agent after the 2024 season. Over the next couple seasons we are also likely to see the debuts of Mick Abel, Griff McGarry and Andrew Painter once he returns from Tommy John surgery. The Phillies will need veteran pitchers to anchor the rotation allowing these young guys to come up without the pressure of having to try and lead the rotation of a contending Phillies team and adding someone like Rodriguez allows them to do this.
On top of adding a starting pitcher the Phillies should look into adding an impact bat to further strengthen their already powerful lineup. Many reports have been saying the Phillies are interested in Cardinals’ first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, and Padres’ left fielder Juan Soto.
With the Phillies no longer needing to fill a hole at first and the Padres trending in the direction of buying at the deadline, acquiring these players feels more like a pipe dream than reality. Left field is now the biggest need as Kyle Schwarber has now been relegated back to a DH role with Bryce Harper’s emergence at first base.
Jeimer Candelario would have been the perfect fit for the Phillies as he’s a great defensive third baseman who’s bat has been very productive for the lowly Washington Nationals. Candelario could have played third, while Bohm slid over to first. However, due to Harper’s emergence at first base the focus shifts to players like Randal Grichuk and Cody Bellinger.
Randal Grichuk has been having a very productive season for the Rockies. In 61 games this year he has a slash line of .307.364/.478 for an .842 OPS. He has an OPS+ of 116. According to Baseball Savant he is well above average in Average and Max Exit Velocity, Hard Hit %, xBA (Expected Batting Average) and K% (Strikeout Percentage). His defense leaves much to be desired as he has -6 OAA (Outs Above Average) between the three outfield positions, but he has been a productive bat for a struggling Rockies team that would slot in nicely with the Phillies.
Cody Bellinger is having a return to form season this year for the Cubs. The 2019 NL MVP is beginning to look like his old self again and is going to be one of the most sought after trade pieces of the deadline. Posting a .312/.360/.545 slash line with a 141 OPS+ in 70 games along with playing great defense in center field as he is in the 89th percentile of Outs Above Average on Baseball Savant. The only negative to Bellinger’s game this year is he hasn’t been hitting the ball extraordinarily hard and is also not barreling the ball up at a very high rate. He is in the 19th percentile for Average Exit Velocity, 37th for Max Exit Velocity, 12th for Hard Hit %, and 34th for Barrel %. Nonetheless, he would be a great fit for the Phillies. A rental outfielder who’s having a great offensive season and can also play some great defense out there is exactly what they need.
The best fits out of these players for the Phillies would be Eduardo Rodriguez and Cody Bellinger. Having Rodriguez under contract for the next 3 seasons is very valuable and Cody Bellinger is everything the Phillies’ lineup needs right now to continue their push for the playoffs. Don’t be surprised if they also try and pick up a bullpen arm along the way (David Bednar and Mark Leiter Jr. are both interesting names that have been floating around the trade market), even though the bullpen has been extremely reliable all throughout the season.
Pitching depth is invaluable come playoff time, and the 2022 Houston Astros that ripped our hearts out just last season are a perfect example. The Phillies are currently in a tie for the second wild card with the Cincinnati Reds and are just a half game behind the San Francisco Giants for the first wild card spot. However, the Marlins and Diamondbacks are both just a half game out of the playoff picture as well. The NL Wild Card race is going to come down to the wire with many teams in the mix, and the Phillies are going to have to make some moves to separate themselves from the pack. It’s time for Dombrowski to get to work.
